INTRODUCTION
The most wonderful time of the year
As this year’s holiday season approaches, we anticipate four important trends that will guide the retail industry into a festive and productive shopping season. In this holiday guide, we explore healthy spending and category shifts, compressed calendar effects, vibrant operational activations, and preparation for supply chain snowballs.
2024 HOLIDAY TRENDS
1
Retail sales: getting warmer
We’re delighted! Why? This year is the first normalized, comparable sales year since 2019 due to pandemic fluctuations and inflation. For 2024, we’re anticipating 3-4% total retail sales growth compared to last year. Despite some economic headwinds and rising consumer debt levels, spending remained healthy through the first three quarters in 2024, especially as inflation eased, leading to the interest rate cut in September (the first in four years).
The composition of category spending is expected to shift, largely due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and possibly more upcoming weather disturbances during the shopping season. While the holiday gifting season typically elevates categories like apparel, children’s, toys, and electronics, we’ll see atypical seasonal growth in building and garden supplies and home furnishings due to the recovery efforts underway in affected areas across the South and Southeast United States.
Ecommerce’s signature annual selling event, Cyber Monday, is December 2nd this year — the first time the peak shopping day will fall in December since 2019. So, notably, any retail sales from Cyber Monday and Cyber Week promotions will shift that uptick into December and push sales productivity reporting out until January 2025.
1 Retail sales: getting warmer
We’re delighted! Why? This year is the first normalized, comparable sales year since 2019 due to pandemic fluctuations and inflation. For 2024, we’re anticipating 3-4% total retail sales growth compared to last year. Despite some economic headwinds and rising consumer debt levels, spending remained healthy through the first three quarters in 2024, especially as inflation eased, leading to the interest rate cut in September (the first in four years).
The composition of category spending is expected to shift, largely due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and possibly more upcoming weather disturbances during the shopping season. While the holiday gifting season typically elevates categories like apparel, children’s, toys, and electronics, we’ll see atypical seasonal growth in building and garden supplies and home furnishings due to the recovery efforts underway in affected areas across the South and Southeast United States.
Ecommerce’s signature annual selling event, Cyber Monday, is December 2nd this year — the first time the peak shopping day will fall in December since 2019. So, notably, any retail sales from Cyber Monday and Cyber Week promotions will shift that uptick into December and push sales productivity reporting out until January 2025.
2
Tis the (compressed) season
The 2024 peak holiday retail season is the shortest since 2019, with just 26 days to shop between Black Friday and December 25. Three gift-giving holidays coincide in late December as Christmas Day lands on the first day of Hanukkah this year, just one day before the start of Kwanzaa on December 26.
The growing trend to pull holiday shopping earlier into the year, which has largely been driven by Amazon Prime Big Deal Days along with competing retailer sales in October, is being further compounded by the more compact selling season. Consumers are incentivized to shop early to secure deals and promotions while guaranteeing product delivery in time for the holidays.
Although there has been a shift away from Black Friday in-store stampedes, Thanksgiving weekend will once again see relevant Black Friday sales events, and Christmas tree lighting ceremonies will drive considerable traffic to retailers and shopping centers.
“Historically, during the longer selling seasons, there can be a lull in traffic and sales between Cyber Week and Super Saturday (the weekend before Christmas) peaks, with another surge just before the formal holidays for the procrastinators and last-minute shopping. However, not this year! This season will be full throttle from start to finish with fewer days to shop and celebrate.”
Meghann Martindale Principal, Director Market Intelligence, Retail Retail Market Intelligence
2 Tis the (compressed) season
The 2024 peak holiday retail season is the shortest since 2019, with just 26 days to shop between Black Friday and December 25. Three gift-giving holidays coincide in late December as Christmas Day lands on the first day of Hanukkah this year, just one day before the start of Kwanzaa on December 26.
The growing trend to pull holiday shopping earlier into the year, which has largely been driven by Amazon Prime Big Deal Days along with competing retailer sales in October, is being further compounded by the more compact selling season. Consumers are incentivized to shop early to secure deals and promotions while guaranteeing product delivery in time for the holidays.
Although there has been a shift away from Black Friday in-store stampedes, Thanksgiving weekend will once again see relevant Black Friday sales events, and Christmas tree lighting ceremonies will drive considerable traffic to retailers and shopping centers.
“Historically, during the longer selling seasons, there can be a lull in traffic and sales between Cyber Week and Super Saturday (the weekend before Christmas) peaks, with another surge just before the formal holidays for the procrastinators and last-minute shopping. However, not this year! This season will be full throttle from start to finish with fewer days to shop and celebrate.”
Meghann Martindale Principal, Director Market Intelligence, Retail Retail Market Intelligence
3
Peace, joy, and operations
Retailers and shopping center owners alike are feeling an uptick in pressure this year to enhance operations to capture the consistent consumer spending momentum, due to less slowdown in traffic and sales, as shoppers stay active during the compressed season.
The shopping centers that Avison Young manages, markets, and leases across the U.S. from Florida to Seattle, have experienced very strong traffic in 2024 thanks to our omniretail approach including events, activations and merchandising to drive traffic and sales, which will continue to trend up throughout this holiday season.
“Because of a surging, shorter season, shopping center teams are working around the clock to ensure the safety and security of our guests and tenants all while creating and preserving the magical experience of the festive season. Special events, activations, holiday markets, and retailer partnerships during this period are paramount to holiday center success.”
Heather Almond Principal, Senior Director US Retail Services at Avison Young
3 Peace, joy, and operations
Retailers and shopping center owners alike are feeling an uptick in pressure this year to enhance operations to capture the consistent consumer spending momentum, due to less slowdown in traffic and sales, as shoppers stay active during the compressed season.
The shopping centers that Avison Young manages, markets, and leases across the U.S. from Florida to Seattle, have experienced very strong traffic in 2024 thanks to our omniretail approach including events, activations and merchandising to drive traffic and sales, which will continue to trend up throughout this holiday season.
“Because of a surging, shorter season, shopping center teams are working around the clock to ensure the safety and security of our guests and tenants all while creating and preserving the magical experience of the festive season. Special events, activations, holiday markets, and retailer partnerships during this period are paramount to holiday center success.”
Heather Almond Principal, Senior Director US Retail Services at Avison Young
4
Making supply chains merry and bright
The U.S. has largely worked through the supply chain imbalances of the past four years. Many large, national retailers foresaw the strike potential looming in the first half of 2024 and prepared in advance by shipping, rerouting, and storing holiday merchandise earlier than usual.
The length of the now-postponed port strike could have been a larger blow to small businesses, since independent retailers traditionally receive their final holiday merchandise shipments in October and are less financially and logistically equipped to implement earlier contingency plans that would help avoid merchandise delays and stock outs.
This event exposes the interconnectedness of the complex global supply chain network and just in time inventory management. Although the contract negotiations will resume in January 2025, retailers can breathe a sigh of relief during the peak selling season that, at least in the short-term, there was minimal disruption for holiday 2024.
4 Making supply chains merry and bright
The U.S. has largely worked through the supply chain imbalances of the past four years. Many large, national retailers foresaw the strike potential looming in the first half of 2024 and prepared in advance by shipping, rerouting, and storing holiday merchandise earlier than usual.
The length of the now-postponed port strike could have been a larger blow to small businesses, since independent retailers traditionally receive their final holiday merchandise shipments in October and are less financially and logistically equipped to implement earlier contingency plans that would help avoid merchandise delays and stock outs.
This event exposes the interconnectedness of the complex global supply chain network and just in time inventory management. Although the contract negotiations will resume in January 2025, retailers can breathe a sigh of relief during the peak selling season that, at least in the short-term, there was minimal disruption for holiday 2024.
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